(Rasmussen Reports) - The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
Romney has a similar advantage in our daily swing state tracking.
In his syndicated newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen notes that following the president’s sub par performance in the first debate, “the reality is that a very close race shifted ever so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney. Either way, it remains too close to call.”
Overall, Romney has had a one- or two-point lead on six of the past nine days. Obama had the advantage just once, and the candidates were tied twice. Those numbers reflect the state of the race after the first presidential debate. Before that, Obama had been ahead or tied for 16 consecutive days.
From a longer term perspective, Romney and Obama have been within three points of each other for 89 of the past 100 days. Only about two percent (2%) of voters changed their mind following the debate. But, in a close race, even a small change can have a big impact.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show smaller swings than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
New Rasmussen Reports polling shows Romney up by four in Florida, up three in North Carolina and up two in Virginia. President Obama is still up by one in Ohio. Currently, the president has a 237-181 edge in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections. However, 10 states with 120 Electoral Votes remain in the Toss-Up category and are likely to decide the election.
The traditionally Democratic states of Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Michigan continue to favor the president. However, the race is tied in New Hampshire and Nevada. Obama is up two in Wisconsin and Iowa. The president has a one-point edge in Colorado.
Democrat Elizabeth Warren has inched ahead of Republican incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts. Democrats also remain ahead in the Senate races in Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. In the Senate Balance of Power rankings, Democrats have the edge 49-45 with six states as toss-ups.
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.
Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats approve, while 87% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 43% approve and 56% disapprove. Platinum Members can still see the more detailed numbers along with demographic breakdowns, and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 31% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13.
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.